_WHAT’S HAPPENING_
President Donald Trump came back into office promising to use protectionist policy — tariffs — to reshore American industry and fix what he saw as unfair global trade practices. On the campaign trail, he had talked about using tariffs on adversaries, like China, and on allies, like Canada.
Starting out as benign, Trumpian jokes about Canada becoming the “51st state” and “Governor Trudeau,” the president’s recent actions have begun to reveal a much more serious intent to absorb Canada into the United States. In response, the Canadians are uniting against Trump and the US.
_THE FACTS_
Trump’s desire to incorporate Canada into the United States first appeared in December 2024; in what the BBC called a “light jab,” the then-president-elect referred to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as the “governor” of Canada. At the dinner, Trudeau told Trump that his tariffs would “kill” Canada’s economy. In response, Trump asked Trudeau why, if Canada relied upon the United States so heavily, they would bother to remain independent at all.
Since then, Trump has doubled and tripled down on the idea of Canada becoming the 51st state, repeatedly calling Trudeau “governor” and making social media posts about the idea. Most recently, in a meeting with NATO chief Mark Rutte, Trump stated that Canada “only works as a state” and called the US-Canada border “artificial.” Trump has repeated the latter claim in conversations with Trudeau in which he reportedly said he does not accept the treaty demarcating the border.
Canada’s government is taking Trump’s threats seriously. Trudeau believes Trump is earnest about annexation, and even individuals who should be allies with the American president, like Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, have spoken out forcefully against Trump’s tariffs and annexation threats.
This message is reaching the rest of the world, too. At the ongoing G7 summit in Charlevoix, Quebec, Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly sent her G7 counterparts a stark warning: “If the US can do this to us, their closest friend, then nobody is safe.”
Canadian party leaders are joined by their people, who overwhelmingly do not want to be part of America. One poll found that around 90 percent of Canadians would vote against annexation.
_INSIGHTS_
Trump often adopts tough negotiating stances to get what he wants, but here, his stance appears to be backfiring. Canada is about to get a new prime minister, Mark Carney, as Trudeau is stepping down — and it is difficult to see how Carney, with an election coming up, will possibly back down to Trump. Trump has also severely damaged Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre’s chances of becoming prime minister. Just months ago, he was soundly leading in the polls. But now, a rally-around-the-flag effect has made the upcoming parliamentary elections significantly closer, with the Liberals potentially even holding their majority.
Americans also do not want Canada to be part of the United States. The same poll that showed 90 percent of Canadians opposing annexation found that 60 percent of Americans oppose it as well, and a majority of those who support it would only want annexation with Canadian consent.
The president's frustration with Canada's tariffs on dairy is understandable, and his interest in Canada’s critical minerals, like in Ukraine, is valid. However, he could have pursued the issue by levying tariffs or negotiating a mineral treaty without resorting to threats of annexation or demanding changes to the border.
