_WHAT’S HAPPENING_
Ukraine is losing the Russo-Ukrainian War, as they have lost nearly all the territory they secured in Russia’s Kursk region. Russia has advanced elsewhere on the battlefront, and Ukraine’s most valuable ally — the United States — is increasingly skeptical of sending more aid.
This has also affected the internal politics of the country: even amid a possible ceasefire, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s approval has slipped and provided an opening to the opposition.
_THE FACTS_
Ukraine has lost all but around 30 square miles of Kursk, the Russian border region it launched a surprise attack on last year. Its government had hoped to use that territory as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Russia. But Ukraine’s government was not fully united on the proposal, as former General Valery Zaluzhny opposed it. President Zelensky fired him by making him the ambassador to the United Kingdom, and now, as the operation falls apart, the Ukrainian government is leaking against Zaluzhny, trying to argue that he supported a similar operation two years earlier.
Zelensky banned pro-Russian politicians from participating in Ukrainian elections and banned negotiations with Russia in order to avoid having these kinds of figures negotiate in secret. However, the main reason for banning these kinds of politicians is due to the absolutist position assumed by the Ukrainian government: no concessions, no compromise, and fight until all the land is taken back and the Russians are driven out.
At the time Zelensky banned negotiations, Ukraine had accomplished its wildly successful Kharkiv counteroffensive, which saw the nation recapture over 4,500 sq. miles of territory. After that, the war slowed to a crawl.
Over the last year, Russia advanced along much of the eastern front, but since then, they have only moved about 25 miles west. This, combined with President Donald Trump’s stance on halting aid, has significantly weakened Ukraine’s maximalist position. Now, Trump is pushing for a ceasefire, which both sides have tepidly accepted, though Russian President Vladimir Putin has asked for vague conditions.
Slowly losing the war also weakened Zelensky’s once-stratospheric approval ratings. In a poll taken late last year, Zaluzhny, the fired general, led Zelensky in a hypothetical presidential election matchup. Ukraine’s opposition leaders, however, have rejected the idea of wartime elections.
_INSIGHTS_
Any Ukrainian president would likely have adopted a maximalist position initially, but Ukraine did not need to maintain it for as long as Zelensky, nor did he have to quarrel in the Oval Office with Vice President JD Vance. Holding onto such a stance for so long also weakened the argument that Kursk could be a bargaining chip, as Ukraine had consistently ruled out any negotiations with Russia.
By promising his people the impossible, he has empowered the opposition. And while opposition leaders, like former President Petro Poroshenko, did indeed rule out elections, they still secretly met with Trump administration officials.
But more broadly, the promise of absolute victory — and the clear failure to achieve it — could have much darker implications for Ukraine. Citizens in Kyiv are already talking about a “stab in the back,” blaming the failure to win on the West. And as post-World War I Germany showed, feelings of betrayal can inspire virulent nationalism within a country. Groups like the Azov Battalion — which never disavowed its early association with neo-Nazism — do not hold anything close to majority support in the country. But radicals could grow in support if the population feels betrayed by its leaders and allies.
