_WHAT’S HAPPENING_
The War Department is moving huge amounts of military assets into the Middle East as nuclear negotiations with Iran hang in the balance, raising the prospect of a large-scale US or joint US-Israeli strike in the coming weeks.
One Trump adviser told the media there is a “90 percent chance” of strikes soon. At the same time, indirect talks in Geneva produced what both sides described as limited progress, though deep disagreements remain over uranium enrichment and Iran’s missile program. The region is now bracing for either a breakthrough or a multi-week military campaign.
_THE FACTS_
A Trump adviser told Axios, "The boss is getting fed up" and estimated a 90 percent chance of military action in the coming weeks.
President Trump's military buildup now includes two aircraft carriers, 12 surface combatants, hundreds of fighter jets, and multiple air defense systems in the region.
At least 50 additional fighter jets, including F-22s, F-35s, and F-16s, have been deployed to the Middle East in the past 24 hours alone.
More than 150 US military cargo flights have moved weapons systems and ammunition to the Middle East in recent weeks.
Two Israeli officials said Israel is preparing for war "within days" and advocating for regime change in Tehran.
Vice President JD Vance said peace talks went well in some ways, but Trump's "red lines" are ones "the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge."
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz for live-fire military drills on Tuesday, the first such closure since the 1980s.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned American warships could be sunk.
Iran has been quietly repairing and fortifying key nuclear facilities since last year's Israeli-led strikes, according to satellite imagery published this week.
_INSIGHTS_
It’s possible that President Trump positioned himself in a corner by demanding something fundamentally different from, and far more restrictive than, what President Obama's JCPOA achieved.
The 2015 deal restricted Iran's uranium enrichment for 10 years while allowing international monitoring. Trump is now demanding Iran permanently cease enrichment capability altogether — a demand that amounts to the permanent surrender of a technology Iran views as its sovereign right. For Tehran, accepting this would constitute political capitulation on a scale unmatched by any previous nuclear agreement, leaving it no choice but to go to war.
