The US Wakes up to China’s Nuclear Abilities

• The Biden administration is reorienting America’s nuclear strategy to account for China’s massive nuclear buildup

• While Russia has been — and still is — a nuclear threat, China has capitalized on Moscow’s current weakness to become America’s most dominant enemy

• Washington failed to get China to sign a nuclear pact

The story

In March, President Joe Biden approved a highly classified change to America’s nuclear strategy. With an eye on China, the US is for the first time in decades rapidly expanding its nuclear weapons arsenal. The strategy, called “Nuclear Employment Guidance,” is updated every four years and delineates the art of war for facing coordinated nuclear threats.

This change signals a significant shift in post-Cold War strategy that primarily focused on deterring Russia. Though Russians still have the largest nuclear stockpile in the world, Washington is forced now to address the threat coming from East Asia.

With growing military and regional ambitions, China has become the undisputed leader of the neo-Axis powers challenging the West.

During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was considered an existential threat to the United States due to its massive nuclear arsenal, communist ideology, and global military and geopolitical ambitions — which together created constant risk of catastrophic nuclear conflict and potential collapse of the American way of life.

In response, the US signed a multitude of treaties and expanded its own arsenal as a deterrent. “Mutually assured destruction” was the motto to live by — or die by.

Such treaties do not exist with China, which was viewed by America’s foreign policy establishment as less threatening than Russia, until lately. Reports existed for years on China’s rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal, but the US has not been successful in de-nuclearization talks with China.

As conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine persist, and as Beijing covets Taiwan and the South China Sea, the United States may have missed its chance to effectively restrain China.

China’s path to dominance

Last year, US and Chinese diplomats met in for the first time in nearly a decade for nuclear arms control talks. China has long rejected the idea of signing a treaty, arguing that its nuclear arsenal is significantly smaller than those of the US and Russia.

However, with its stockpile rapidly expanding, China could possess over 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, according to a recent Pentagon report. The report states that China’s objective is to achieve “’the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049,” and that it is modernizing its military and preparing for a “clash of opposing ideological systems” with the West.

While Washington generally viewed Russia as the most significant military threat to America, the conflict in Ukraine challenged that narrative. The swift victory that Russian President Vladimir Putin anticipated turned into a prolonged and costly struggle, leaving at least 50,000 Russians dead.

The war in Ukraine revealed weaknesses in Russia's military power. With each day that Ukrainian forces — heavily armed by the US — repel Putin’s army, Russia's influence and global standing diminish further.

Despite Beijing's denials, it has been supplying Russia with crucial weapons components and bolstering its economy, meaning Russia is fully reliant on Beijing for survival. As Russia’s military is devastated, China has become the top neo-Axis power — partnering with Russia, Iran, and North Korea as the United States watches them wreak havoc globally.

Failing to leash China

The US has taken proactive steps to push back against China’s military development, but none are directed at slowing its nuclear buildup.

The National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2023 increased funding for US military capabilities in the Indo-Pacific and authorized grant assistance to Taiwan, providing up to $2 billion annually. It also restricted Chinese companies tied to the military from accessing US defense supply chains, and tightened export controls on sensitive technologies.

Even so, China's nuclear expansion is accelerating far beyond what American intelligence agencies predicted, driven by President Xi Jinping's shift toward surpassing — not just competing with — America and Russia. China's nuclear complex is now the fastest-growing in the world.

China's rise to dominance was significantly driven by the US offshoring its manufacturing base. With Chinese nationals able to produce goods for pennies on the dollar, the US and developed nations worldwide directly contributed to China’s economic might. America’s addiction to cheap Chinese labor created a juggernaut capable of outcompeting its more Western-friendly neighbors, like Japan and South Korea.

Nearly every presidential administration from Richard Nixon to Barack Obama championed a bilateral nuclear arms deal with Russia, and both nations successfully dodged a deadly exchange for five decades. But the US has never entered into a formal nuclear treaty with China and, for years, Beijing has been extraordinarily hostile to entering into any kind of nuclear non-proliferation deal.

Since a Beijing deal hasn’t happened, and as Iran and North Korea continue developing their militaries, the combined forces present a major challenge for America — one that its leaders failed to thwart.

Why it matters

Years of questionable diplomatic and economic decisions leave America facing its strongest adversaries in decades. Biden's decision to modernize America's capabilities in response to the "significant increase in the size and diversity" of China's nuclear arsenal suggests the defense establishment may no longer view Russia as the top threat.

China’s rapid military and nuclear buildup is part of its broader effort to win an ideological battle, not just a military or economic one. Washington’s failure to reign in China has allowed it to become wealthy, influential, and perhaps most dangerously — nuclear.