_WHAT’S HAPPENING_
During the 2024 campaign, Donald Trump promised to end the Russo-Ukrainian war in 24 hours.
Upon taking office, he acknowledged it might take longer, but expressed hope that peace would quickly be found.
However, both Ukraine and Russia have dragged their feet toward peace, and after months of anger directed toward Ukraine’s leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, it is Russia that has increasingly drawn Trump’s ire of late, as they have continued to pound Ukrainian cities amid Trump’s peace push.
_THE FACTS_
Initially, Trump faced resistance from Ukraine. President Zelensky refused to surrender land to Russia, delayed a minerals deal sought by Trump, and demanded American-backed security guarantees, which Trump rejected.
Zelensky has now signed the deal and shown willingness for a 30-day ceasefire; Trump hopes this pause leads to a broader peace deal.
Trump still criticizes Zelensky, recently posting “everything out of his mouth causes problems” — but his ire is shifting more toward Putin.
Russia initially rejected a ceasefire, instead demanding a NATO ban and Ukraine’s “denazification” — effectively calling for regime change.
Trump recently called Putin “absolutely crazy” for launching missiles into civilian areas in Ukraine while Trump pushed for a ceasefire.
Trump followed up, saying he stopped “lots of really bad things” from happening to Russia, and warned that Putin was “playing with fire.”
A new Senate bill threatens to impose a 500 percent tariff on any country buying Russian oil.
Russia is reportedly drafting a new peace proposal that drops the denazification demand but calls for recognition of Russian-occupied territories, sanctions relief, and a pledge to halt NATO expansion.
_INSIGHTS_
While Russia has managed to keep its economy intact despite major sanctions, the bill pending in the Senate would effectively destroy Russia’s economy.
However, even with that threat, Putin is still not going to want to halt the conflict anytime soon. That’s because at heart, he’s a nationalist who believes that Ukraine, Belarus, and the surrounding areas belong to Russia as they belonged to the Soviet Union. He likely sees this war as his last chance to reclaim some of that land.
At the same time, Russia is currently winning the war, though progress is slow. Putin understands that Trump is frustrated with Zelensky's refusal to relinquish annexed territory, and if that frustration grows, Trump may walk away from the conflict — leaving Putin to simply wait.
