Donald Trump’s return to the White House is likely to bring a fundamental shift in America’s foreign policy
America’s allies and enemies are uncertain how to prepare for a world with less U.S. involvement
Many of America’s NATO allies are concerned about Trump’s return; he demands they spend more on defense
The story
The election of an American president can change the fates of billions around the world, especially when that president has made clear he wants drastic changes to American foreign policy.
Donald Trump’s selection of Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) as his running mate elucidates his intention to break from interventionist ideas which have guided America’s foreign policy since the end of the Cold War.
Certain countries are extremely pessimistic about Trump’s return to power. Much of the European Union spent four years contemplating Trump’s return and has sought to “Trump-proof NATO” to keep U.S. cash flowing.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose country was criticized by Trump for failing to pay its way, endorsed President Joe Biden at the recent NATO summit, calling him a “great campaigner” and “very focused.”
Balancing the scale, one of Trump’s closest European allies, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, already endorsed him.
Ukraine may be the most concerned about Trump returning to office. European leaders have said privately that Trump’s choice of Vance — a skeptic of Ukraine aid — is a disaster for the country.
While Ukraine’s leadership is publicly optimistic — President Volodymyr Zelensky said he will work with Trump — recent reports that Trump plans to compel Ukraine to negotiate with Russia could cause concern.
Regardless of positive or negative views, Trump’s continued domination in the polls has foreign diplomats scrambling to connect with his campaign to better understand his thinking and get his ear, should he win.
The big three
The world’s three biggest militaries — after the United States — will be closely watched by experts. China, Russia, and India see varying degrees of positive and negative in a Trump presidency.
India has navigated a middle path the past few years, attempting to sustain relationships with Russia and the West. But under Biden, the country was repeatedly threatened with sanctions.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a close relationship with Trump when he held office. A new Trump administration would likely be less critical than Biden’s over human rights. However, it could also expect India to depart from its equidistant path and align more toward the West.
Russia most likely prefers Trump’s return, as it would fracture the liberal globalist consensus that dominates the West. Trump’s desire to end the war in Ukraine could concede Russian possession of some conquered territory. Though Putin waited to invade Ukraine until Biden’s watch, a Trump presidency would likely allow him a victory, whereas the Biden administration is intent on Ukraine fighting to the end.
While Biden’s administration is tougher on China than the GOP gives him credit for, Trump would undoubtedly turn up the heat, having threatened to implement major tariffs and to aggressively combat China’s market domination in electric cars.
Beyond the headlines
Trump’s foreign policy is portrayed in mainstream media as one driven by an ideological love of dictators and dislike of liberal democracies. Conversely, Biden’s foreign policy is depicted as morally upstanding after hosting a “summit of democracies” — while withholding invitations from Hungary, a democracy.
But Trump’s foreign policy in a second term will likely be driven by realism: the world should be viewed realistically, without the lens of ideology. Elbridge Colby, a Trump administration official who will likely have a high-profile foreign policy role should Trump win again, said that realism is “deeply rooted” in America’s history.
A Trump administration would act in its own national interest. It would ally with a dictatorship if needed, just as it would ally with a democracy. It would not make enemies based on what countries do within their own borders.
Why it matters
For decades, the centerpiece of U.S. foreign policy was promoting democracy abroad. Policy evolved during the Cold War when the world was split in two, and it resulted in democratic allies taking advantage of America’s generosity and commitment to abstract principles.
The U.S. continued to protect Germany, even after the Cold War, because it was a democracy. At the same time, Russia rightfully claimed that the United States was hypocritical for professing to prioritize democracy while linking arms with regimes opposed to Western human rights, like Saudi Arabia.
But with realism and the pursuit of nothing but national interest at the center of America’s foreign policy, America will no longer be obliged to maintain its current role.
