_WHAT’S HAPPENING_
New reporting has uncovered widespread signs of suspicious trading on Polymarket, where users have been betting millions on the timing and outcome of American and Israeli military operations.
A new investigation found dozens of accounts exhibiting red flags consistent with insider trading, particularly around strikes on Iran and the US operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. A separate analysis highlighted nine linked accounts that allegedly earned $2.4 million at a 98 percent win rate on war-related bets.
Federal prosecutors have already charged a US Army soldier and an Israeli reservist in connection with using nonpublic military information to profit from prediction markets.
_THE FACTS_
US Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke placed $34,000 in bets before the Maduro capture on Jan. 3, profiting over $400,000.
Nine connected Polymarket accounts earned $2.4 million by betting almost exclusively on military operations, achieving a 98 percent win rate.
A New York Times investigation found more than 80 accounts with suspicious betting patterns on military and government events since 2024.
Long-shot military bets on Polymarket won 52 percent of the time, compared to only seven percent for sports wagers.
At least seven users bet hours before Trump announced a US-Iran ceasefire on April 7, collectively winning $1.4 million.
Twenty-seven accounts placed simultaneous bets predicting US strikes on Iran by Feb. 28, collectively winning over $700,000.
An Israeli Air Force officer was charged with using classified military information to bet on Israeli strikes on Iran and Yemen.
More than $800 million in oil futures bets were placed 15 minutes before President Trump announced productive ceasefire talks with Iran on March 23.
The Kalshi prediction market opened more than 200 insider-trading investigations, with over a dozen active cases pending.
_OUR TAKE_
The explosion of military betting represents a novel, but very real, national security threat that goes beyond individual profiteering. As one expert warned, America’s adversaries can monitor prediction markets for patterns that signal upcoming operations, essentially creating a real-time intelligence feed for hostile actors. When clusters of well-timed bets precede military strikes, that signal is clearly visible to anyone watching.
Not to mention the skewed incentives for military actors at home. If high-ranking military officials can profit from launching — or anticipating — military strikes, it risks compromising high-level decision-making in the worst-case scenarios, jeopardizing the safety of Americans. That is extraordinarily dangerous and demands far tougher federal enforcement.
