WHAT’S HAPPENING
President Donald Trump's diplomatic push with Russia has shown some tangible results this week. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg, securing Russia's agreement to resume trilateral peace talks with Ukraine, while Russia freed a long-held American prisoner.
This recent diplomacy has put pressure on the Ukrainians, however, who are still under constant assault while trying to hold the line against the Russians.
THE FACTS
Trump announced that Putin released Stephen Hubbard, the last American officially designated as wrongfully detained by Russia.
Witkoff and Kushner met with Putin in St. Petersburg on Wednesday, proposing trilateral talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine.
Putin agreed to resume negotiations "in principle" after November 10, following Ukraine's acceptance of the proposal in Oslo the previous day.
Trump's October 9 diesel deal promised 300,000 tons of Russian diesel immediately, with up to five million tons to follow in coming months.
Last week, Trump signed an executive order waiving the Lindsey Graham Act's 100 percent tariffs on Russian energy importers before the law took effect.
US diesel prices have spiked to $6.33 per barrel, up from the 2025 average of $3.64.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the diesel deal "very dangerous," arguing it strengthens Putin without meaningfully affecting US fuel prices.
Elon Musk’s SpaceX recently restricted Starlink’s military service in Ukraine, likely to pressure Kyiv into halting its strikes on Russian oil facilities.
Zelensky paused refinery strikes for three days but resumed them after Russia launched one of its largest attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
OUR TAKE
The bet being made by President Trump and those in his administration is that sanctions relief and re-upping economic ties with the West could make Russia less dependent on China — America's chief geopolitical rival. It’s a reversal of the Nixon-Kissinger strategy, which opened to China in the 1970s to pull it away from the Soviet Union.
But this is an extremely dubious assumption to make today. Moscow has spent years deepening its economic and strategic relationship with Beijing, and there is little reason to assume that access to American diesel revenue or limited sanctions relief will persuade Putin to abandon that partnership or in any way change his ambitions in Europe.
